Health Care Reform Bad To Worse
In perhaps some of the worst news yet for President Obama's push for health care reform, a recent study found that 81% of Americans believe that the bill being pushed towards becoming law will cost more than the Government claims it will. How bad is this for Obama? In short, 79% of Americans can correctly answer that the earth revolves around the sun. You do the math. But the facts coming out on this poll are worse than the opinions about it.
Also of concern here is the promise of President Obama not to raise taxes on 95% of Americans. FOX News is reporting that this promise would be broken by the health care reform as it stands.
A nonpartisan study is casting new doubt on President Obama's campaign pledge not to raise taxes on the middle class.
The Senate health care bill crucial to saving President Obama's signature domestic initiative will hit the wallets of a quarter of all Americans making less than $200,000 per year, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Joint Tax Committee that assessed the way the bill would hit taxpayers directly through new taxes and fees and indirectly through taxes levied on health care providers and passed on to consumers.
The committee also determined that the bill would subsidized insurance premiums for 7 percent of taxpayers -- about 13 million people -- while some 73 million people would face higher costs from the new fees and taxes.
The potential tax increases in the bill could pose significant problems for the president as he makes his final push for health care reform because he promised to protect middle-class Americans from any tax hikes. Republicans already are pouncing on the committee's analysis.
"For every family that gets some benefit from this program, in other words, a premium subsidy, three families are going to get a tax increase and those three families obviously include the bulk of people you'd call middle class America," Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, told Fox News.
Democratic leaders are scrambling to gather enough votes to pass the bill in the House later this month so that changes House members want can be added in the Senate through reconciliation, an unusual tactic that allows a simple majority in the Senate to counteract a filibuster by the minority. The steps are part of Obama's final push to pass a comprehensive health care reform bill.
The analysis comes as the Congressional Budget Office updated its cost tally of the Senate bill, estimating that the last-minute changes made to the bill before it was passed Christmas Eve upped the price to $875 billion, from $871 billion. The CBO also estimates that the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $118 billion over a 10 year period, revised down from $132 billion.
But the projection could be undermined by future spending needed to administer parts of the bill, including up to $10 billion for the IRS, up to $20 billion for Health and Human Services and up to $50 billion for "grant programs and other provisions."
As I have pointed out before, this CBO analysis of the Health Care Reform Bill is highly skeptical anyway. Now before you take the Democrat talking point here, and say that I don't accept what the CBO says if I don't like it, let's pause for a moment here and look at what the CBO really said.
It’s true that the CBO’s admittedly rough estimate said the bill could reduce the deficit below its projected level by “as much as” about $1 trillion over 20 years — but it also said the reduction could be half of that amount. And it noted the estimate is subject to a great deal of uncertainty.
CBO normally gives estimates for 10-year periods, and the nonpartisan entity doesn’t like to go beyond that. It said the Senate bill could produce a net deficit reduction of $132 billion over 2010-2019. For the next decade, CBO said the reduction would be “in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP.” Senate Democrats estimated that would mean a reduction of $650 billion to $1.3 trillion.
That is a far cry from what the Democrats are saying. So no, I'm not opposed to what the CBO said. First off, to say that the CBO says that they bill will do these things is false, when the CBO calls its own estimate a "rough estimate". Second, the CBO prefaces their results by telling us that they don't typically give estimates beyond ten years. Finally, the CBO said the bill could, not would, do these things. Hence, for President Obama to throw these numbers out there saying that the CBO has said these things will happen is the economic equivalent of my saying that I don't typically plan six months ahead, and I'm not sure if I will be in the area at that time, but if nothing else comes up I will try to go to your wedding being called a firm RSVP.
So now, we see the CBO beginning to adjust the numbers down, and the Joint Tax Committee adjusting the tax expenses up, and this makes me question the logic of this bill somehow being a win for Obama. I understand that the President desperately needs a win here, but how do we calculate a win? Forget process, and all the talking points, and just look at the bill in light of the poll numbers the Democrats themselves have been touting. Here are the questions that were asked in the poll that they claim shows Americans favor the bill when they understand what is in it.
6. Now I’m going to read you some SPECIFIC proposals people have made to change the health care system. As I
read each one, please tell me if you personally favor or oppose this change. Here’s the (first/next) proposal….
(INSERT ITEM—READ AND RANDOMIZE)
READ AS NECESSARY: Do you favor or oppose this proposal (to change the health care system)?
ALWAYS ASK ITEMS a-c AS A GROUP, IN ORDER:
Favor Oppose DK
a. Requiring that all Americans have health insurance,
with the government providing financial help to
those who can’t afford it
59 36 5 =100
b. Requiring most businesses to offer health insurance
to their employees, with tax incentives for small
business owners to do so
75 20 5 =100
c. If health coverage is required for everyone,
imposing fines on individuals who don’t obtain
coverage and on larger businesses that don’t offer it
28 62 10 =100
d. Requiring health insurance companies to cover
anyone who applies, even if they have a pre-existing
medical condition
76 19 5 =100
e. Creating a government-administered public health
insurance option to compete with private plans
50 42 8 =100
f. Creating a new insurance marketplace – the
Exchange – that allows people without health
insurance to compare plans and buy insurance at
competitive rates
81 13 6 =100
g. Preventing insurance companies from dropping
coverage when people are sick
59 38 3 =100
h. Imposing a tax on insurers who offer the most
expensive health plans, the so-called Cadillac plans,
to help pay for health care reform
34 55 11 =100
7. Now please think about the proposals I just described to you. ALL of these proposals are included in Barack
Obama’s health care reform plan. Having heard these details, what is your OVERALL opinion of Obama’s plan –
do you favor it or oppose it?
Favor Oppose DK
CURRENT TOTAL 48 43 9 =100
Men 43 49 8 =100
Women 52 38 10 =100
Republicans 18 74 8 =100
Democrats 83 10 7 =100
Independents 34 57 9 =100
Conservative 26 68 6 =100
Moderate 54 35 11 =100
Liberal 79 16 5 =100
Notice, amongst Republicans the numbers are 18% for and 74% against. With Independents, the number becomes 34% for and 57% against. The swing comes from Democrats who support it 83% to 10% opposed. However, a few key things were left out of the questions. Notice, there was no mention of the tax increases on medical devices, the tax increases on the middle class, the potential of one being thrown in jail for failing to get health care, and the huge cuts to Medi-Care. Based on the fact that only 34% support the tax increase on insurance companies, and only 28% support the fines on individuals who don't get health insurance, I'm wiling to bet that adding a few of the other things that this bill does would change those numbers a bit.
Lastly, I believe that the sample group should also be mentioned when looking at the results of this poll.
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:
908 Registered Voters (plus or minus 3.8)
488 Men (plus or minus 5.3)
521 Women (plus or minus 5.0)
259 Republicans (plus or minus 6.9)
319 Democrats (plus or minus 6.5)
399 Independents (plus or minus 5.8)
